A market that grows 7× in five years rewards breadth and scale

Between 2020 and 2025, global EV sales grew about sevenfold, from 3.0 to 21 million. Tesla grew 3.3× and still saw its share fall from 17% to 8%: growth went to carmakers with broader line-ups. Chinese brands now supply about 60% of sales; two models make up 97% of Tesla’s deliveries.

Must every carmaker now sell everything? Hardly any can. China has 129 EV brands, yet AlixPartners expects only about 15 to stay viable by 2030. As of mid-2025, apart from BYD and Li Auto no listed Chinese EV maker had a profitable year.

So a narrow range is not a mistake, and Tesla’s share loss is not proof of bad decisions: the market it opened became one where breadth and cost decide. The survivor benchmark is about 1 million cars a year, which Tesla still exceeds. A head start earns the lead; defending it takes scale across the range, or a deliberate choice to hold a smaller share.